Monday, February 29, 2016

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Friday, February 26, 2016

First Day in Office

What I would do on my first day in office. #MakeAmericaGreatAgainText TRUMP to 88022 to join the #TrumpTrain

Posted by Donald J. Trump on Friday, February 26, 2016

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs
The University of Texas at Austin
Austin, TX 78712
February 18, 2016
The Honorable Alan Krueger
The Honorable Austan Goolbee
The Honorable Christina Romer
The Honorable Laura D'Andrea Tyson

Dear Alan, Austan, Christina and Laura,

I was highly interested to see your letter of yesterday's date to Senator Sanders and Professor Gerald
Friedman. I respond here as a former Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee – the
congressional counterpart to the CEA.

You write that you have applied rigor to your analyses of economic proposals by Democrats and
Republicans. On reading this sentence I looked to the bottom of the page, to find a reference or link to
your rigorous review of Professor Friedman's study. I found nothing there.
You go on to state that Professor Friedman makes “extreme claims” that “cannot be supported by the
economic evidence.” You object to the projection of “huge beneficial impacts on growth rates, income
and employment that exceed even the most grandiose predictions by Republicans about the impact of
their tax cut proposals.”
Matthew Yglesias makes an important point about your letter:
“It's noteworthy that the former CEA chairs criticizing Friedman didn't bother to run
through a detailed explanation of their problems with the paper. To them, the 5.3 percent
figure was simply absurd on its face, and it was good enough for them to say so, relying
on their authority to generate media coverage.”
So, let's first ask whether an economic growth rate, as projected, of 5.3 percent per year is, as you
claim, “grandiose.” There are not many ambitious experiments in economic policy with which to
compare it, so let's go back to the Reagan years. What was the actual average real growth rate in 1983,
1984, and 1985, following the enactment of the Reagan tax cuts in 1981? Just under 5.4 percent. That's
a point of history, like it or not.
You write that “no credible economic research supports economic impacts of these magnitudes.” But
how did Professor Friedman make his estimates? The answer is in his paper. What Professor Friedman
did, was to use the standard impact assumptions and forecasting methods of the mainstream economists
and institutions. For example, Professor Friedman starts with a fiscal multiplier of 1.25, and shades it
down to the range of 0.8 by the mid 2020s. Is this “not credible”? If that's your claim, it's an
indictment of the methods of (for instance) the CBO, the OMB, and the CEA.
To be sure, skepticism about standard forecasting methods is perfectly reasonable. I'm a skeptic myself.
My 2014 book The End of Normal is all about problems with mainstream forecasting.
In the specific case of this paper, one can quibble with the out-year multipliers, or with the productivity
assumptions, or with the presumed impact of a higher minimum wage. One can invoke the trade deficit
or the exchange rate. Professor Friedman makes all of these points himself. But those issues are well
within mainstream norms.
There is no “magic asterisk,” no strange theory involved here. And the main effect of adjusting the
assumptions, which would be a perfectly reasonable thing to do, would be to curtail the growth rate
after a few years – not at the beginning, when it would matter most.
It is not fair or honest to claim that Professor Friedman's methods are extreme. On the contrary, with
respect to forecasting method, they are largely mainstream. Nor is it fair or honest to imply that you
have given Professor Friedman's paper a rigorous review. You have not.
What you have done, is to light a fire under Paul Krugman, who is now using his high perch to airily
dismiss the Friedman paper as “nonsense.” Paul is an immensely powerful figure, and many people
rely on him for careful assessments. It seems clear that he has made no such assessment in this case.
Instead, Paul relies on you to impugn an economist with far less reach, whose work is far more careful,
in point of fact, than your casual dismissal of it. He and you also imply that Professor Friedman did his
work for an unprofessional motive. But let me point out, in case you missed it, that Professor Friedman
is a political supporter of Secretary Clinton. His motives are, on the face of it, not political.
For the record, in case you're curious, I'm not tied to Professor Friedman in any way. But the powerful
– such as Paul and yourselves – should be careful where you step.
Let's turn, finally, to the serious question. What does the Friedman paper really show? The answer is
quite simple, and the exercise is – while not perfect – almost entirely ordinary.
What the Friedman paper shows, is that under conventional assumptions, the projected impact of
Senator Sanders' proposals stems from their scale and ambition. When you dare to do big things, big
results should be expected. The Sanders program is big, and when you run it through a standard model,
you get a big result.
That, by the way, is the lesson of the Reagan era – like it or not. It is a lesson that, among today's
political leaders, only Senator Sanders has learned.
Yours,
(Jamie)
James K. Galbraith
Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee, 1981

Friday, February 19, 2016


FEBRUARY 25, 2016 TO FEBRUARY 26, 2016

SHANGHAI, CHINA
PROGRAM AGENDA 
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2016
7:00AM - 8:30AM
REGISTRATION
8:30AM - 8:45AM
WELCOME REMARKS
Meeting Host: Emma Jiang, News Presenter, China Business Network
Tim Adams, President and Chief Executive Officer, IIF
8:45AM - 9:00AM
OPENING KEYNOTE
Jiang Jianqing, Chairman, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)
9:00AM - 9:30AM
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Senior Chinese Official (TBC)
9:30AM - 10:30AM
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance, China
Isabelle Job-Bazille, Chief Economist, Crédit Agricole
Marios Maratheftis, Chief Economist, Standard Chartered Plc (moderator)
Helen Qiao, Greater China Chief Economist, Head of Asia Economics, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML)
Hongbin Qu, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Greater China, HSBC
10:30AM - 11:00AM
COFFEE BREAK
11:00AM - 12:00PM
INFRASTRUCTURE
Gershon Cohen, Head of Infrastructure Funds, Aberdeen Asset Management (moderator)
Sara Bonesteel, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Strategy, Prudential Insurance Company of America
David Gardner, Managing Director, Global Head of Infrastructure, Energy and Export Finance, HSBC
Mark Machin, Senior Managing Director & Head of International; President, CPPIB Asia Inc.
Ju Weimin, Executive Vice President, China Investment Corporation (CIC)
12:00PM - 2:00PM
LUNCH ECONOMIC AND POLICY OUTLOOK: CAN ASIA DRIVE GLOBAL GROWTH?
Tim Adams, President and Chief Executive Officer, IIF (moderator)
Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International
Yi Gang, Deputy Governor, People’s Bank of China
Gao Yingxin, Executive Vice President, Bank of China
2:00PM - 3:00PM
GLOBAL/ EM CAPITAL FLOWS
Jaime Caruana, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements
Steven Kamin, Director International Division, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Ke Kasheng, President, Executive Director, China Huarong Asset Management Co., Ltd
Jens Nystedt, Managing Director, Emerging Markets Debt, Morgan Stanley (moderator)
Luke Spajic, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager, PIMCO Asia
3:00PM - 4:00PM
G20 REGULATORY AGENDA
Masamichi Kono, Vice Minister for International Affairs, Financial Services Agency Japan
Ravi Menon, Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore
Mario Nava, Director, Regulation and Prudential Supervision of Financial Institutions, European Commission
Andrés Portilla, Managing Director, Regulatory Affairs, IIF (moderator)
Senior Official, China Banking Regulatory Commission (TBC)
4:00PM - 5:00PM
REINVIGORATING GLOBAL TRADE
Marco Annunziata, Chief Economist, Executive Director of Global Market Insight, General Electric Company
Sonja Gibbs, Senior Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF (moderator)
Senior Executive, DIFC
Paul Sheard, Chief Global Economist and Head of Global Economics and Research, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
Shang-Jin Wei, Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB)
5:00PM - 6:00PM
SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURING
Leland Goss, Managing Director and General Counsel, International Capital Market Association (ICMA)
Sean Hagan, General Counsel, Director of the Legal Department, International Monetary Fund
Hans Humes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Greylock Capital Management
Zhang Tao, Director General, Legal Department, People’s Bank of China
Hung Tran, Executive Managing Director, IIF (moderator)
6:00PM - 6:30PM
KEYNOTE REMARKS
Alfonso Prat Gay, Minister of the Economy, Argentina
6:30PM - 9:00PM
DINNER: CEO DISCUSSION - FUTURE OF FINANCE
Tim Adams, President and Chief Executive Officer, IIF
PROGRAM AGENDA 
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2016
7:00AM - 8:45AM
REGISTRATION
8:45AM - 9:00AM
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor, People’s Bank of China
9:00AM - 9:15AM
REMARKS
Henry M. Paulson, Jr, Chairman, Paulson Institute
9:15AM - 10:00AM
GREEN FINANCE
Ma Jun, Chief Economist, Research Bureau, People’s Bank of China
Mushtaq Kapasi, Chief Representative, Asia-Pacific, International Capital Market Association (ICMA)
Michael Sheren, Senior Advisor, Bank of England
Zhang Xiaosong, Chief Executive Officer, China Great Wall Asset Management Corporation
Simon Zadek, Co-Director, UNEP Enquiry into Sustainable Finance (moderator)
10:00AM - 10:30AM
IN CONVERSATION
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Tim Adams, President and Chief Executive Officer, IIF
10:30AM - 11:00AM
KEYNOTE REMARKS
Wolfgang Schäuble, Finance Minister, Germany
11:00AM - 11:15AM
REMARKS
Charles W. Scharf, Chief Executive Officer, Visa Inc.
11:15AM - 12:15PM
ASIA’S GROWING LEADERSHIP IN DIGITAL FINANCE
Neal Cross, Managing Director Chief Innovation Officer, DBS
David Ku, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Webank
Alain Raes, Chief Executive APAC and EMEA, SWIFT (moderator)
Christopher Townsend, President, Asia, MetLife, Inc.
Huang Yiping, Director, Institute of Internet Finance/Deputy Dean, National School of Development, Peking University
3:00PM - 3:30PM
KEYNOTE REMARKS
Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England
3:30PM - 4:30PM
LUNCH: B20
Hung Tran, Executive Managing Director, IIF (moderator)
Yu Ping, Vice Chair, B20 China
2:00PM - 3:00PM
CHINA
He Fan, Chief Economist, Caixin Insight Group
Hong Liang, Chief Economist, China International Capital Corporation Limited
Eugene Qian, China Country Head and President, UBS AG
Yanqing Yang, Deputy Editor-in-Chief, China Business Network (moderator)
Arthur R. Kroeber, Head of Research, Gavekal Dragonomics
3:00PM - 3:30PM
KEYNOTE REMARKS
Federico Sturzenegger, President, Banco Central de la República Argentina
3:30PM - 4:30PM
JAPAN
Robert Feldman, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley
Robin Harding, Tokyo Bureau Chief, Financial Times (moderator)
Kathy Matsui, Vice Chair, Chief Japan Equity Strategy and Co-Head Macro Research in Asia, Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Jun Saito, Senior Research Fellow, Japan Center for Economic Research
Hajime Takata, Managing Executive Officer and Chief Economist, Mizuho Financial Group